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50/50 tie?!?! Will the primary election end tomorrow?!?! Yay political drama!
She’ll probably end up winning by 10 to 15,000? Only 91% reported so far.
More polls came out today, like pretty much any other day. It’s amazing how much we rely/give importance to polls now a days and it’s a pretty recent phenomenon. True, polls have been used for quite a long time, but the last eight years have seen a major increase.
According to a cnn/gallop poll, President Bush’s approval rating is 28%, which is a little lower than usual. He’s pretty much been around 30% for a long time. His Republican base has and will always keep him around 30%, no matter how bad things get.
The “news worth” information from the poll is that his disapproval rating is the highest of any president, 71%. I think that percentage is a little inflated, but they polled over 1,000 people so it’s a pretty good survey, depending on the type of questions they asked. Most other places I’ve read have his disapproval rating around 65%. Que the graph:
| Bush Job Approval October 2006 – Current |
||
|---|---|---|
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Apr 26 | 34 | 64 |
| Apr 19 | 34 | 64 |
| Apr 12 | 35 | 63 |
| Apr 5 | 34 | 63 |
| Mar 2008 | 36 | 61 |
| Feb 2008 | 37 | 60 |
| Jan 2008 | 38 | 59 |
| Dec | 37 | 60 |
| Nov | 37 | 60 |
| Oct | 37 | 61 |
| Sep | 38 | 59 |
| Aug | 38 | 59 |
| Jul | 38 | 60 |
| Jun | 35 | 62 |
| May | 36 | 61 |
| Apr | 39 | 59 |
| Mar | 40 | 58 |
| Feb | 41 | 57 |
| Jan 2007 | 41 | 57 |
It’s easy to get low numbers though. Have the economy go to pot, increase food and fuel prices, and be in an unpopular war, that will make anyone have a low rating. Oh well, it will be neat to see in 50 years how history rates President Bush, and Clinton for that matter.
Let’s talk about local politics. I think Obama is still going to carry North Carolina Tuesday, but it will not be as big of a lead as he/people probably think. A small amount of it can be contributed to Republicans voting for Hillary and a larger part because of Rev. Wright and recent ads released by Hillary’s campaign.
A recent poll, released today, has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 51% to 37%. A few weeks ago his lead was 23%. Why do you think everyone wrote NC off after Penn, he was already leading very well in NC. Too bad Indiana is a toss up.
Excerpts: “The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by fifteen points among White voters while Obama leads 80% to 11% among African-Americans. Clinton does well among White Women and older voters while Obama leads among those under 65. Among White voters who earn less than $60,000 annually, Clinton leads by a 2-to-1 margin. Obama leads among White voters who earn more than $75,000 a year.”
Hillary will probably win Indiana, and Obama NC, then we’ll be in a mess again and not figure anything out until August. McCain just keeps looking better, the old coot.
This article is nice, it gives a sneak peak at some of the newly registered voters in NC.
Democrats register in record numbers
This article gives a good perspective on the primary vs. general election importance. Some things I had not really thought of before.
So, what do I think will happen next Tuesday in North Carolina? Should I trust the polls or not? Should I trust the numbers? Going by demographics alone, it appears Obama has the lead for a reason. In most of the other states, ethnic groups have voted like people suspect, so why not expect the same here?
About 23% of our population is African American, which is about 10% higher than the national average. No matter what Bill did in the 90′s, I doubt Clinton will receive enough votes from this group to make a difference and close the gap Obama currently maintains.
Probably 8 or 9% is Hispanic, depending on how many illegal immigrants are guessed. Hillary should keep constant and gain more votes in this community over Obama.
The rest of the population is a majority of rural or urban whites with Asian and Pacific nations represented as well. Clinton has an edge in the rural vote, who overwhelmingly vote Republican, or at least in the past they have voted that way. We seem to have a tradition, at least in my short life span, of voting Democratic governors and Republican presidents. I have not quite figured that out yet. We are special.
I think Obama will prevail next Tuesday, but not as large as Hillary’s 9.2% win in Penn. Who knows though, there is a lot of time between now and next week, or now and tomorrow for that matter.
